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As the November presidential election draws near in the United States, the race to the White House seat has become intense with prediction of the likely winner in each state following poll analysis from the past two years.
The model for the data using the Electoral College, forecast a 50,000 times chances of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump winning the election.
This data-driven forecast has been tested for accuracy in every U.S. presidential election since 1972.
Since its launch in 2020, the race to the White House has developed a strong reputation for accurate predictions.
For instance, in 2022, the analysis missed the exact number of GOP House seats by just one, and an independent review confirmed that its House and Senate race probabilities were the most accurate among forecasters.
Present forecast suggested that Kamala Harris has a 57.1% chance of winning, while Donald Trump has a 42.7% chance, with a margin of just 0.2% between them.
In terms of projected Electoral College votes, Harris is expected to receive 284.2, while Trump is predicted to secure 253.8. Democrats are projected to win 247 seats, while Republicans are expected to claim 219.
Harris, the first female, Black, and Asian-American U.S. Vice President, succeeded President Biden’s after his decision to step down and endorse Harris.
Trump and Harris are the main contenders in the upcoming election.
Harris has revitalised the Democratic base, swiftly closing the gap in the polls and reversing Trump’s gains in key swing states that could decide the election.
