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Over the past 20 years, emerging economies have played an increasingly significant role in shaping global agricultural market trends, and this influence is expected to continue in the next decade.
However, there will be regional shifts due to changing demographics and economic prosperity, as outlined in a report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2025 is a crucial global resource for forecasting agricultural commodity market trends in the medium term. This edition marks the 20th release of the joint publication.
The report has been analyzing demographic and economic factors driving agricultural commodity supply and demand, predicting changes in production and consumption patterns, and evaluating resulting shifts in international agricultural trade for the past two decades.
The report anticipates a significant change over the next decade, with India, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa playing increasingly important roles, while China's influence is expected to decline.
In the previous decade, China contributed to 28% of global agricultural and fisheries consumption growth, but this is projected to decrease to 11% in the coming decade due to factors such as a stabilizing population and slower income growth, as well as changes in dietary patterns.
Meanwhile, India and Southeast Asian countries are expected to drive 31% of global consumption growth by 2033, fueled by urbanization and rising prosperity.
The report also highlights Sub-Saharan Africa's substantial projected contribution of 18% to global consumption growth, mainly due to population-driven demand for food.
The report forecasts an annual 1.1% growth in total agricultural and fisheries consumption (including food, feed, fuel, and other industrial raw materials) over the next decade.
