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The passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari has sparked renewed speculation regarding the political trajectory of his supporters, especially those affiliated with the now-disbanded Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), which he established in 2009.
With President Bola Tinubu's rise in 2023, the power of CPC loyalists has diminished, with influential figures like former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal publicly opposing Tinubu’s potential pursuit of a second term.
Analysts predict that Buhari’s death may resurface challenges for the All Progressives Congress (APC), given the late leader's substantial cult-like following, estimated at over 12 million.
Tensions have emerged between the APC and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), as both parties compete for Buhari's political supporters.
This follows statements from former military leader General Abdulsalami Abubakar, who indicated that Buhari’s demise could alter Nigeria’s political landscape.
“This illustrates the extent of what Nigeria has suffered,” Abdulsalami remarked about Buhari's impact.
“The political landscape in Nigeria is bound to change with Buhari's passing — and I hope it will be for the better.” Meanwhile, the ADC's interim National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, disclosed that many of Buhari's close supporters have already aligned with their coalition.
“Most of Buhari's loyalists have joined us,” Abdullahi stated. “The majority from the North are now part of our party. We're very confident. The former President’s death solidifies this, as it was his desire that his supporters join the coalition.”
He further asserted that the coalition would uphold Buhari’s legacy, arguing that the APC marginalized and belittled the late President during his lifetime. “Why would they stay with the APC?” he questioned.
“Is it because they like the humiliation and exclusion they have faced? Or is it because they've seen the government disparage Buhari's legacy while he was alive?” Abdullahi characterized the Tinubu administration's tendency to blame Buhari for Nigeria’s economic issues. “Why would Buhari’s followers stay with the APC?”
Prominent CPC members still within the APC include former Nasarawa State Governor Senator Tanko Al-Makura, along with others such as Babale Ila, Ibrahim Gobir, and current party officials.
Although many of these individuals are working for the APC in advance of the 2027 elections, sources indicate that not all will remain due to grievances stemming from Buhari’s exit from power.
ADC coalition member and former APC National Vice Chairman Salihu Lukman noted that Buhari’s death signals the end of an era where the late President's endorsement almost assured electoral success.
Throughout an appearance on Arise TV, Lukman emphasized the need for a new political framework that meets Nigerians' expectations. He urged politicians to act with humility and reconnect with constituents, highlighting the absence of a key figure like Buhari, whose endorsements often translated to victories in the North.
In response to the growing rumors of defections, Bala Ibrahim, APC's Director of Publicity, asserted that Buhari’s loyalists remain ideologically aligned with the ruling party.
“No, they will not support ADC; it’s impossible,” he asserted. While acknowledging that Buhari’s passing has created a vacuum, Ibrahim sees it as a chance for the party to reflect and improve. “Yes, the political climate will shift for our party. But it’s not a vacuum that will harm the party; it might encourage introspection…”
Former Minister of Communications Adebayo Shittu dismissed rumors regarding his move to the ADC, stating, “No way, I am not leaving the APC. In fact, I am planning to run for the Oyo governorship seat in 2027.”
He is confident in winning the party's nomination. Shittu argued that Buhari’s exit wouldn’t fracture the APC, despite acknowledging that some CPC members might leave, suggesting a net increase in people joining the APC.
Opinions among northern leaders are divided; Anthony Sani, the former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum, believes there won’t be significant changes in the APC following Buhari's death. He noted Buhari's commitment to the APC, claiming his supporters won’t betray him.
He expressed skepticism regarding the coalition's effectiveness, citing unfavorable zoning dynamics. Conversely, Yerima Shettima, President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum, cautioned that Buhari’s death could create a power vacuum in the APC.
“The leadership characterized by loyalty and divisiveness may lead to a power vacuum. The APC faces a pivotal moment,” Shettima remarked.
He highlighted that how the party manages Buhari’s legacy will be crucial in determining whether it can unify or fracture.
“Should the party fail to address the public’s grievances, it risks losing credibility and support,” he warned.
Shettima suggested that the CPC faction could assert its identity as caretakers of Buhari’s ideals or evolve into a separate political entity, depending on the shifting dynamics within the party.
