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The trade ties between the United States and Nigeria have encountered a notable decline, with official statistics from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicating that US imports of Nigerian goods fell by $527 million in the initial five months of 2025, compared to the same timeframe in 2024.
This decline nearly amounts to 20 percent on a year-over-year basis, amidst escalating bilateral trade tensions between the two nations. In the corresponding period of 2024, the US imported goods worth $2.65 billion from Nigeria, which dropped sharply to $2.12 billion between January and May 2025.
This downturn follows a series of renewed protectionist steps led by US President Donald Trump, who enacted an executive order on April 2, 2025, instituting a general 10 percent import tariff on numerous countries.
Under the "Liberation Day" tariff framework, Nigeria faced an elevated tariff rate of 14 percent due to its historical trade surplus with the US. While Nigeria still ranks among the US's leading trading partners in Africa, the ramifications of Trump's renewed trade policy are evident.
Additional pressure was exerted when Trump threatened a further 10 percent tariff on nations perceived to be aligning with the BRICS economic bloc, of which Nigeria is a prospective new member.
These tariffs seem to have dissuaded US demand for Nigerian products. It's noteworthy that energy-related items, particularly crude oil—which constitutes Nigeria's primary export—were explicitly exempt from these tariffs.
However, the overall decrease in Nigerian exports to the US indicates a wider market slowdown that extends beyond oil. Other Nigerian exports, including agricultural and manufactured goods, have been impacted by the unpredictability created by the new trade policy.
This shift is reflected in the trade statistics, revealing that US imports from Nigeria in May 2025 reached $400 million, a significant drop from the $517 million recorded in May 2024.
More crucially, even oil exports, despite not being subject to the tariff, demonstrated signs of weakness, potentially due to market conditions and changing US sourcing strategies. Data for the first five months of 2025 indicates that the US imported 17.39 million barrels of Nigerian crude oil, valued at $1.34 billion based on customs value, down from 20.4 million barrels worth approximately $1.52 billion imported in the same period of 2024.
The volume decline points to a shift in US sourcing strategies, possibly reflecting competition from alternative producers or adjustments in strategic reserves.
Nevertheless, Nigeria continued to be the foremost supplier of crude oil to the US from Africa, surpassing Libya, Angola, and Ghana.
In May 2025 alone, the US imported more than 4.2 million barrels of Nigerian crude, valued at $311 million, down from $368 million in April. However, crude oil imports from Nigeria accounted for over 62 percent of total US crude purchases from Africa during the first five months of 2025.
In terms of value, Nigeria's oil exports to the US were recorded at $1.34 billion (customs value) and $1.38 billion (C.I.F. value), underscoring its pivotal role in energy trade, even as overall exports have decreased.
In the same period, the rest of Africa contributed $811 million in crude oil exports, with Libya, Angola, and Ghana lagging significantly behind Nigeria in both volume and value. Yet, this energy supremacy has not translated into greater trade leverage for Nigeria.
The limited diversification of its export products, along with structural issues like port inefficiencies, regulatory hurdles, and inadequate industrial capacity, has hindered Nigeria's efforts to move beyond crude.
Data gathered indicate that US exports to Nigeria surged from $2.05 billion in the first five months of 2024 to $2.42 billion in the same period of 2025. This 17.8 percent increase in US exports, paired with the decrease in imports, led to a shift in the trade balance between both nations.
It's essential to highlight that the US also has a robust export relationship with Nigeria in the automobile sector.
Data indicates that between January and May 2025, the US exported $426 million worth of motor vehicles and parts to Nigeria, comprising $312 million in passenger cars, $29 million in trucks and buses, and $86 million in parts.
The automotive sector represented nearly 18 percent of total US exports to Nigeria, reflecting the significance of the Nigerian consumer market for American manufacturers. In May 2025, the US dispatched $95 million in motor vehicles and parts to Nigeria, slightly down from the $100 million recorded in April, yet still representative of steady demand.
The detailed breakdown shows $70 million in passenger cars, $7 million in trucks and buses, and $19 million in parts, highlighting the ongoing demand for imported vehicles in Nigeria. The PUNCH further emphasized that while the US had a trade deficit of $596 million with Nigeria in the first five months of 2024—indicating Nigeria exported more to the US than it imported—that situation reversed in 2025.
By the end of May 2025, the US achieved a $295 million surplus over Nigeria. This shift in trade balance signifies a pivotal moment in US-Nigeria trade relations, as Nigeria transitioned from being a net exporter to a net importer in this bilateral context. Monthly trends reinforce this reversal.
In May 2025 alone, the US exported $515 million in goods to Nigeria, while importing just $400 million, resulting in a surplus of $115 million for the US that month. This contrasts sharply with May 2024 when the US recorded a deficit with Nigeria, importing more than it sold. Nigeria's standing within the broader context of US-Africa trade seems to be under pressure.
In terms of exports, Nigeria constituted about 14.8 percent of all US goods exported to Africa between January and May 2025, a slight decrease from its share the previous year. On the import side, Nigeria accounted for around 10.8 percent of US imports from Africa. Although Nigeria is still one of the top three African trading partners of the US, its influence is waning as countries like Egypt and South Africa enhance their trade relations with Washington.
Report further revealed that Egypt has emerged as the leading African export destination for the US, with exports to Egypt escalating to $3.43 billion in the first five months of 2025, up from $1.95 billion during the same period in 2024.
This notable increase underscores Egypt’s expanding role in economic relations between Africa and the US. Meanwhile, South Africa remains dominant, with the US importing $8.67 billion worth of goods from the country between January and May 2025—more than four times what it imported from Nigeria—while exporting only $2.71 billion to South Africa.
In contrast, Nigeria's overall trade volume with the US now amounts to around $4.54 billion for the current year-to-date, lagging behind both Egypt and South Africa. The slower growth in non-oil trade indicates that Nigeria is struggling to maintain its status as a principal economic ally of the United States.
Recall that Nigeria’s trade with BRICS nations surged to N5.41 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, more than three times the N1.54 trillion recorded in exports to the United States, demonstrating a significant shift in Nigeria’s trade direction towards emerging markets, even as the US threatens to impose an extra 10 percent tariff on BRICS-aligned countries—an action that could increase Nigeria's total exposure to US tariffs to 24 percent.
This came as some members of the Organised Private Sector indicated that the US's proposed 10 percent tariff on BRICS-aligned nations and a 25 percent tariff targeting Japan and South Korea signifies escalating global trade tensions that may indirectly impact Nigeria's private sector.
President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, previously remarked that the US's proposal could signal rising global trade tensions detrimental to Nigeria's private sector.
He asserted that as global supply chains are modified and trading blocs realign, Nigerian businesses—especially those dependent on imports from affected countries—might encounter increased expenses and market instability for raw materials, equipment, and technology.
However, this change also opens up opportunities. The African Union's response to the US stance, by bolstering the AfCFTA, allows Nigeria to enhance regional trade and attract investment from BRICS nations looking for alternative markets.
This could pave new export routes and enable Nigerian businesses to cater to a larger African market, reducing reliance on conventional trading partners. To capitalize on this, Nigeria must act swiftly by supporting local production, enhancing trade infrastructure, and adopting policies aligning with AfCFTA objectives. The private sector must remain flexible, competitive, and innovative to seize emerging opportunities while mitigating external risks.
This moment is pivotal for Nigeria to redefine its role in the changing global trade landscape.
However, Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Foreign Affairs and Protocol, Ademola Oshodi, stated that Nigeria's association with BRICS is based on ideological and strategic alignment rather than formal membership. Sponsored content includes an engineer revealing a simple way to access the internet without a subscription.
Additionally, President Tinubu has proclaimed a national day of mourning following the death of former President Buhari in London, and Vice President Shettima will accompany Buhari's remains back to Nigeria.
Oshodi characterized Nigeria's BRICS partnership as "larger than any other South-South cooperation framework, second only to the United Nations," emphasizing that it positions Nigeria alongside major global actors like China, India, and Russia.
He clarified that Nigeria is currently a partner nation, not a full member, and, therefore, cannot vote or sign agreements within the BRICS framework.
He dismissed concerns that the US's tariff threats would impact Nigeria, asserting, "That 10 percent policy is more of an assurance right now; it’s not yet an American policy... We’re not a full BRICS member, so this shouldn’t affect us regardless of our ideological similarities."
He further indicated that Nigeria maintains a robust and mutually beneficial relationship with the global North, particularly the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom.
"Our top trading partners are those countries before we consider India and others," he remarked, adding that Nigeria continues to engage positively with the West on trade, climate change, and diplomatic cooperation through platforms such as the Commonwealth, United Nations, and G20.
The National Vice President of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, commented that Trump’s announcement of the tariffs sent shockwaves throughout the global economy, creating a climate of uncertainty.
He remarked that the announcement alone spurred considerable uncertainty—something markets typically do not handle well. Negative reactions from markets were expected, and investors responded negatively to this unpredictability. Indeed, the US stock market lost almost a third of its value shortly after the announcement, highlighting the disruption the policy instigated.
"The uncertainty triggered by the tariffs reverberated through the international trade environment. Exporters were left unsure about the regulations and adopted a wait-and-see approach.
It’s not surprising that Nigeria’s exports to the US are declining. You may recall that Trump once pledged to finalize a trade agreement in 90 days, but so far, I doubt even five agreements have been completed. Such inconsistency carries real implications for trade."
Kuti-George further stated that this situation should serve as a wake-up call, stressing, "It reminds us of the need to focus inward. We must begin to consume what we produce. We need to develop and rely on our own industries and resources. Essentially, we are what we create. We must utilize what we cultivate and invest in our existing capabilities."
He noted the changing nature of US immigration policies as well, stating that applying for a US visa today may grant only a three-month single-entry option, necessitating reapplication for subsequent trips.
All these developments indicate a singular message: Nigeria must invest in its own capacity, infrastructure, and innovation.
"If we want to navigate the shifts brought on by global politics and economic changes, we need a solid base at home by enhancing what we possess. We already have the necessary foundations. We just need to trust in ourselves and act accordingly."
