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Nigeria's overall public debt increased by N57.3 trillion in the first 18 months of the current administration, as per an analysis based on data from the Debt Management Office.
This rise signifies a 65.6 percent growth in the debt stock, escalating from N87.38 trillion at the end of June 2023 to N144.67 trillion by December 2024.
President Bola Tinubu, who took office on May 29, 2023, took charge of a debt portfolio characterized by significant domestic liabilities, including a N22.7 trillion balance of Ways and Means from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
However, within 18 months, Nigeria's borrowing profile sharply expanded, primarily due to rising local debts and considerable naira depreciation.
At June 2023's end, the DMO indicated Nigeria's total external debt was N33.25 trillion, while domestic debt reached N54.13 trillion. By December 2024, external debt surged to N70.29 trillion, with domestic debt rising to N74.38 trillion.
The uptick in external obligations, both in numbers and proportions, represents a shift in Nigeria’s debt structure, with foreign debt now comprising almost half of the total debt.
In dollar figures, the debt landscape appears different. Nigeria’s total public debt reduced from $113.42 billion in June 2023 to $94.23 billion by December 2024, indicating a nominal decrease of 17 percent.
This decrease, however, is not due to reduced borrowing but rather due to the steep depreciation of the naira, which declined from an official exchange rate of N770.38 to $1 in June 2023 to roughly N1,535 to $1 by late 2024.
The exchange rate fluctuations profoundly affected the naira valuation of Nigeria’s dollar-denominated debts. While the dollar amounts of foreign borrowings remained stable, their naira value nearly doubled. For example, the Federal Government’s external debt climbed from N29.9 trillion in June 2023 to N62.92 trillion by December 2024; debts from states and the Federal Capital Territory rose from N3.35 trillion to N7.37 trillion during the same timeframe.
Additionally, a significant decline was noted in the domestic debt of sub-national governments. States and the FCT owed N5.82 trillion in domestic debt in June 2023, dropping to N3.97 trillion by December 2024, which may indicate their reduced access to debt amid rising borrowing costs. At the federal level, total debt obligations — combining domestic and foreign loans — rose from N78.21 trillion to N133.33 trillion, showing that the Federal Government still bears over 90 percent of the country’s total debt.
The growing external debt has also changed the structural balance of Nigeria's debt portfolio. In June 2023, external debt represented 38 percent of the total, rising to nearly 49 percent by December 2024.
Reported indicate that the Federal Government of Nigeria’s domestic debt has surged by over N22.1 trillion since President Bola Tinubu took office, increasing from N48.31 trillion at June 30, 2023, to N70.41 trillion by December 31, 2024, reflecting a 45.7 percent rise in this period according to detailed data from the Debt Management Office.
At the end of June 2023, the FGN’s domestic debt stock was N48.31 trillion, largely comprising FGN Bonds, which constituted about 86.9 percent of the total, totaling N41.97 trillion. Nigerian Treasury Bills followed with N4.72 trillion, while other instruments like Sukuk, Savings Bonds, Green Bonds, and Promissory Notes contributed minimally to the total, with Promissory Notes valued at N780 billion and Sukuk at N742.56 billion, along with Green Bonds and FGN Savings Bonds each accounting for less than 0.1 percent.
By December 2024, the debt surged to N70.41 trillion, representing a nominal increase of N22.1 trillion. A significant factor in this rise was the conversion of the N22.7 trillion Ways and Means Advances from the Central Bank of Nigeria into tradable bonds — a move sanctioned by the National Assembly and the President in May 2023. This restructured debt alone constitutes more than 32 percent of the domestic debt rise observed since Tinubu assumed office.
FGN Bonds retained dominance in the debt portfolio as of December 2024, standing at N55.44 trillion, including N54.03 trillion in standard local currency bonds and N1.41 trillion in domestic US dollar bonds, contributing to 78.7 percent of total domestic debt. Treasury Bills increased to N12.35 trillion, nearly tripling from their June 2023 level, indicating a heightened reliance on short-term borrowing during the latter half of the year. FGN Sukuk grew to N992.56 billion, and Savings Bonds rose to N72.87 billion, with Green Bonds remaining at N15 billion.
Promissory Notes climbed significantly to N1.54 trillion, doubling from levels observed in June 2023, with N425.6 billion in naira-denominated notes and the remainder consisting of foreign currency-denominated promissory notes owed to local residents. Notably, the 2024 debt structure showed an increasing role for foreign currency instruments within domestic obligations.
For instance, a US dollar-denominated FGN bond issued on September 6, 2024, valued at $917.41 million, converted to naira at an official exchange rate of N1,535.32 to $1. Similarly, foreign-denominated promissory notes worth $727.24 million were converted using the same rate. This trend of integrating dollar-based debt into the domestic portfolio likely aims to attract foreign investors or diaspora subscribers.
The increase in short-term instruments like Treasury Bills also reflects the liquidity pressures experienced by the government as it sought quick funding to address budget deficits. Treasury Bills constituted just 9.8 percent of FGN debt in June 2023 but rose to 17.5 percent by the end of 2024.
The growth of domestic debt occurred in the context of aggressive fiscal reforms and the naira's depreciation. Following the unification of the exchange rate in June 2023, the naira significantly devalued, dropping from N770.38 to N1,535.32 against the US dollar, affecting not only external debts but also domestic borrowing costs as inflationary pressures mounted and investors demanded higher returns.
Overall, the 45.7 percent increase in FGN domestic debt since President Tinubu assumed office reflects both inherited liabilities and new borrowing to finance deficit spending.
Report also noted the Federal Government’s external debt stock rose from $43.16 billion in June 2023 to $45.78 billion by December 2024, indicating a moderate rise of $2.62 billion, or 6.1 percent. Although this increase may seem relatively modest in dollar terms, the naira valuation of this debt soared dramatically due to the domestic currency's depreciation concurrently with this period.
At the beginning of the Tinubu administration, Nigeria’s external debt stood at $43.16 billion, according to the Debt Management Office’s June 2023 report, comprising loans from multilateral and bilateral creditors, as well as commercial borrowings via Eurobonds. By December 2024, this figure grew to $45.78 billion, with new issuances and disbursements from international lenders contributing to this increase. Multilateral institutions comprised the majority source of external funding, representing nearly 49 percent of the total stock as of December 2024.
Loans from the International Development Association of the World Bank totaled $16.56 billion, an increase from $14.03 billion in June 2023. Likewise, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development segment of the World Bank grew from $485.75 million to $1.24 billion, and borrowings from the African Development Bank rose from $1.55 billion to $2.10 billion.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently confirmed that Nigeria has completely repaid the $3.4 billion financial support it received under the Rapid Financing Instrument to mitigate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, concluding repayment on April 30, 2025. The loan, provided in April 2020, aimed to assist Nigeria in addressing the severe drop in oil prices, economic contraction, and fiscal pressures from the pandemic.
Additional observations indicated that Nigeria's debt profile remains significantly influenced by bilateral creditors like China, France, Germany, Japan, and India. Loans from the Export-Import Bank of China, Nigeria's largest bilateral lender, escalated from $4.73 billion in mid-2023 to $5.06 billion by the end of 2024.
France’s Agence Française de Développement kept its exposure around $592.60 million, while Germany’s Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau slightly declined to $105.78 million. Japan and India’s combined obligations were less than $75 million by December 2024. Furthermore, commercial debt has significantly increased.
Nigeria's Eurobond obligations rose from $15.62 billion in June 2023 to $17.32 billion by December 2024, reflecting a $1.7 billion increase aimed at addressing fiscal deficits and managing foreign exchange liquidity. The Eurobond category, making up 37.8 percent of total external debt, remains a vital aspect of Nigeria's international funding strategy, albeit with higher interest rates and susceptibility to global market fluctuations.
The 2024 data did not indicate any outstanding Diaspora Bonds or substantial syndicated loans, with the only syndicated credit being a $54.87 million facility from Deutsche Bank. A notable difference between the two periods is the removal of promissory notes and syndicated loans as significant components of external debt; following repayments, neither presented in the debt table by December 2024.
While Nigeria's external debt increased marginally in dollar terms, the naira valuation reveals a much more significant rise due to exchange rate movements. In June 2023, the CBN’s official rate was N770.38/$1; by December 2024, it had weakened to N1,535.32/$1. Consequently, the naira value of the $45.78 billion external debt soared to N70.29 trillion, contrasting with N33.25 trillion for the $43.16 billion debt in mid-2023. Although Nigeria added slightly more than $2.6 billion in external obligations, the naira valuation of this debt more than doubled in 18 months.
The reform initiatives by the Tinubu administration, including the cessation of fuel subsidies, naira floatation, and attempts to enhance tax revenue, have yet to mitigate the rising debt. The repercussions of the increasing debt levels are apparent in the federal budget, with debt servicing costs consuming a growing share of government revenue. Despite the Tinubu administration's promises of enhanced revenue generation and reduced wasteful expenditure, fiscal consolidation remains a challenge.
The Federal Government is also pursuing a new $500 million loan from the World Bank to support a comprehensive initiative aimed at revitalizing essential agricultural value chains and generating jobs nation-wide. The project, titled Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value-Chains for Growth, is anticipated to gain approval by December of the current year, with the Federal Ministry of Finance identified as the borrower. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, along with designated state governments, will act as implementing agencies.
According to the project information document released by the World Bank on May 1, 2025, this initiative aims to tackle persistent obstacles in productivity, infrastructure, market access, and policy reforms that have hindered Nigeria’s agricultural sector for generations. The Bank classifies Nigeria's agriculture sector as vital for economic growth and rural livelihoods, yet it faces challenges of low productivity, infrastructural deficits, land tenure insecurity, and weak financing access.
While agriculture contributed 25 percent of the GDP in 2024 and represented 40 percent of non-oil exports, the sector remains largely underdeveloped and informal, with labor productivity rates notably lagging behind global standards. The World Bank highlighted that Nigeria’s agricultural labor productivity, averaging $3,527 per worker annually, stands at less than half of the global average of $7,782 for middle-income countries.
The upcoming facility will facilitate a blend of public investments and private sector-focused reforms, including support for irrigation infrastructure, seed and fertilizer systems, climate-smart agricultural practices, post-harvest storage and processing facilities, and regulatory improvements to encourage investments in agribusiness. Additionally, it will bolster land administration reforms to enhance tenure security and enable land-based financing, particularly in regions prioritized for irrigation and clustering within value chains.
The document also emphasizes the critical issue of food insecurity, estimating that over 31 million Nigerians experienced acute food insecurity in 2024, driven by inflation, conflict, and climate-related disruptions. Nigeria ranked 110th out of 127 countries on the 2024 Global Hunger Index. To ensure effective impact and transparency, the program will adopt a performance-based financing structure, requiring states to meet annual eligibility criteria to access project funds. States that fulfill reform and implementation benchmarks will receive a larger share of funding, thereby promoting healthy competition and accountability.
The program is poised to provide benefits to rural communities, including women and youth, while enhancing the potential of farmer cooperatives, research institutions, and agribusinesses. The World Bank emphasized the central role of the private sector throughout the program cycle, from design to execution, offering incentives such as credit guarantees and risk-sharing mechanisms to mitigate investment risks. The project aligns with Nigeria’s agricultural policies, including the National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (2022–2027), and supports the Country Partnership Framework's objective of fostering job creation and economic diversification.
Previously, the Washington-based lender approved three financing operations totaling $1.08 billion aimed at enhancing education, nutrition, and economic resilience in Nigeria. According to a recent statement by the bank, these concessional loans target improving the quality of education, building community resilience, and enhancing nutrition for underserved groups.
