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Nigeria has lost its long-standing title as Africa’s largest importer of refined petroleum products due to the increased production at the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, according to a new report.
South Africa has now surpassed Nigeria as the continent's leading fuel importer, as per recent data from energy consultancy CITAC, marking a significant change in Africa’s downstream oil sector.
The Dangote refinery, which commenced large-scale production in early 2024, is already altering established trade patterns across sub-Saharan Africa and transforming the continent’s energy landscape.
With a refining capability of 650,000 barrels daily, the world’s largest single-train refinery, its rising output is significantly decreasing Nigeria's need for petrol imports.
Latest figures released by CITAC illustrate that Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products in the first quarter of 2025, while South Africa imported 4.2 million tonnes in the same period, solidifying its position as Africa's top fuel importer.
Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC, noted, “Nigerian imports are decreasing due to the ongoing operation of Dangote.” She added, “Since the start of this year, South African imports have consistently been the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.
Crude throughput in sub-Saharan African refineries surged by 77.8 percent year-on-year in 2024, rising from an average of 382,500 barrels daily in 2023 to 680,100 barrels daily in 2024, largely driven by the Dangote plant.”
This development signifies a crucial milestone for Nigeria, which has paradoxically relied on foreign fuel imports despite being Africa’s leading crude oil producer for decades.
The report predicts that Nigeria's total refined fuel imports in 2025 will drop to 6.4 million tonnes, less than half of South Africa's anticipated 15.5 million tonnes.
“The Nigerian market has seen significant changes in product flow since mid-2023. The long-awaited 650 kb/d Dangote refinery near Lagos began operations in January 2024, gradually increasing output and activating secondary units throughout the year. The output from the Dangote refinery has replaced most international clean product imports in West Africa,” the report elaborated.
The Dangote refinery has emerged as a significant source of petroleum product supply, now operating at 550,000 barrels per day. While Nigeria’s imports are declining, South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel is increasing, a result of a steep decline in refining capacity.
Operational failures, aging infrastructure, and chronic lack of investment have led to the closure of various facilities since 2020. South Africa’s state-owned logistics firm, Transnet SOC Ltd, indicates that imports now fulfill over 60 percent of national fuel demand. The situation deteriorated in 2022 when the country’s largest refinery, Sapref, a collaboration between Shell Plc and BP Plc, was shut down.
Despite the government’s acquisition of the facility in 2023 aimed at resuming operations, no relaunch date has been confirmed. An industry executive involved in Shell's divestment talks stated, “South Africa’s infrastructure is stable, but its refining deficit is now inviting foreign traders to fill the gap.”
Analysts believe Nigeria’s decreased dependency on imports could strengthen the naira, ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and reduce trade deficits.
This shift also carries fiscal implications for the government, which has historically allocated significant resources to subsidizing imported fuel.
At the same time, Swiss oil trader Mocoh has stated it is undergoing a strategic transformation as the Dangote refinery changes fuel supply dynamics across West Africa, disrupting conventional trade routes and prompting a transformation in business strategies.
For years, Mocoh established its core business around supplying premium motor spirit, commonly known as petrol, to Nigeria, the continent's largest oil consumer, heavily relying on arrangements with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.
However, the phased launch of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery, which began delivering large volumes of fuel to the domestic market in 2024, has dramatically altered that landscape.
“In early 2025, we witnessed a paradigm shift,” remarked Olivier Lassagne, Mocoh’s new CEO, in an interview with Platts.
“We lost most of our petrol business with NNPC, but that has motivated us to expand beyond our traditional niche and prepare for the future.”
Moscow, which has operated in Nigeria for nearly thirty years, has carved out a new space by collaborating with Dangote to export excess fuel to neighboring markets like Benin, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso. Yet, competition remains intense.
The Dangote refinery has primarily partnered with trading giants like Vitol, BP, and Trafigura for significant offtake agreements, while emerging players like Afreximbank-backed Atmin are striving to enhance intra-African trade flows.
“Dangote values flexibility and market pricing. They aren’t limiting themselves to exclusive partners,” added Lassagne, noting that Mocoh is positioning itself as a flexible regional player.
