Can DisCos Deliver 20-Hours Power Supply on 4,099MW, Amidst Constant Grids Collapse?

By Abiodun Saheed & Benedicta Bassey.

In a bid to improve electricity supplies to homes and industrial consumers nationwide, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), recently mandated the eleven Distribution companies (DisCos) to be providing 20 hours of electricity supply to Band A consumers at N225 per kilowatt.

Based on this, Rocketparrot News went to towns and captured the feelings of the consumers on this burning issue, bearing in mind that the country’s current generation capacity of 4,099MW has led to persistent erratic supply for more than 10 years after the government disengaged from running the electricity industry.

The erstwhile National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) now Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), was privatised on 11 November 2013, during the administration of former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.

The government, however, retained the generation and transmission facilities under the Transmission Company of Nigeria ( TCN).

Nearly eleven years down the road, has the power generation, transmission and distribution improved to have justified the frequency of tariff increase, especially the just introduced N225 per kilowatt, and would that lead to 20 hours of power supply to customers under BAND A?

Here is what some Nigerians said:

A Challenging Goal, But Not Impossible

The Director of Aso Solar System, Ademoye Olusegun, an energy expert with over 15 years of experience in the power sector, including power generation, transmission, distribution, and policy development, said that achieving 20 hours of consistent power supply in Nigeria on a benchmark of 4,099MW will require a significant transformation of the power sector when benchmarked with that of South Africa's 45,000MW.

He said that while it is a challenging goal, it is not impossible with the right interventions and investments. Nigeria's power sector faces various challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, transmission and distribution losses, gas supply constraints, and financial issues plaguing the DisCos.

He said that to improve the power supply in Nigeria, a holistic approach is needed. Investments in power generation infrastructure, both traditional and renewable sources, are crucial. Enhancing gas supply to power plants, upgrading transmission and distribution networks to reduce losses, improving governance and regulation in the sector, and ensuring financial sustainability for the DisCos are essential steps.

“When comparing with South Africa, Nigeria can learn from its neighbour's experience in power sector development. South Africa has made significant investments in power generation capacity over the years, which has enabled it to reach a capacity of 45,000 MW.

Nigeria can leverage this experience and tailor it to its unique challenges and opportunities”.

Olusegun explained that the government must play a critical role in providing the policy framework, incentives, and regulatory environment to attract investments in the power sector, adding that regulators must ensure a level playing field and enforce compliance with standards, investors are crucial for providing the necessary funding for infrastructure development.

“Collaboration among these stakeholders is vital to address the challenges in the power sector comprehensively. Without a coordinated effort, it will be challenging to achieve the goal of 20 hours of consistent power supply in Nigeria”.

He said Nigeria's key priorities should include increasing power generation capacity through diverse sources, enhancing the efficiency and reliability of the transmission and distribution networks, improving gas supply to power plants, reducing losses, enhancing governance and transparency in the sector, and ensuring financial viability for the DisCos.

It is Feasible With strategic planning, investments, and Stakeholder collaboration.

A staff of Ikeja Electricity, Mrs Olufunke Badmus, said that power supply in Nigeria has been a long-standing issue, and we are continuously working towards improving the situation.

Benchmarking against South Africa, with its higher power generation capacity, provides us to strive towards.

However, there are various challenges unique to Nigeria that we need to address to achieve a consistent 20 hours of power supply.
“Several factors contribute to the challenges in providing consistent power supply.

First, inadequate and outdated infrastructure remains a significant issue.
The distribution network in Nigeria requires substantial upgrades to improve efficiency and reduce losses.

In addition, issues such as gas supply constraints for thermal power plants and funding limitations impact the generation capacity.
She said the Federal government and Disco companies are actively working on multiple fronts to enhance power supply reliability.

“ We are investing in infrastructure upgrades to modernize the distribution network and reduce technical losses.
Collaborating with other stakeholders to address challenges related to gas supply for power generation is also a priority. Moreover, improving the funding structure to attract investments in the power sector is crucial for sustained progress.

Badmus said “While benchmarking against South Africa provides a target for improvement, it is essential to recognize the unique circumstances of each country.

Nigeria faces challenges such as population growth, infrastructure deficits, and funding limitations that impact the ability to achieve 20 hours of power supply consistently.

However, with strategic planning, investments, and stakeholder collaboration, we believe it is feasible to progress towards that goal incrementally.
She stressed that Collaboration with various stakeholders is paramount to addressing the various challenges in the power sector.

“Engaging the private sector in power generation, transmission, and distribution projects can bring expertise, innovation, and additional resources to the sector.

Last, raising awareness among consumers about energy efficiency and the importance of timely bill payments contributes to a more sustainable power supply ecosystem.

“We would like to assure Nigerians that the federal government and the DisCos are committed to enhancing power supply reliability and accessibility.

While challenges persist, we are dedicated to implementing strategic initiatives, collaborating with stakeholders, and investing in infrastructure to progress towards our goal of delivering 20 hours of power supply consistently.

We appreciate the understanding and support of the Nigerian people as we work towards a more efficient and reliable power supply system for the benefit of all.”

We Enjoy 12-15 hours but...
Also, some residents of Alimosho Local Government Area in Lagos State expressed mixed reactions concerning the electricity distribution companies and the 20 hours of power supply in their areas.

Mrs Rukayat Ahmed, a resident at the governor’s road around the Ikotun axis said that the electricity is still more constant as they are placed in Band B, adding that they enjoy up to 12-15 hours of light daily.

She stressed that the government can do more by providing the necessary social amenities for all of Nigeria.
“ Well, we still enjoy up to 12-15 hours of light in my area but it is not enough because electricity is a necessity in every area not that some parts will enjoy 20 hours and some will have less, are we, not all Nigerians,” she said.

We Pay Bills Monthly, But No Light.
A resident of Ayobo Ipaja Mr Godwin Oluwasegun, complained that the light is not usually stable and they struggle to have light in their area.

“ We in Band C, even be before now we no dey get light and we they pay bills every month, it is so painful, some people like magida, Alaja axis still they enjoy light pass us for the olorunishola side,” he said

Also, a resident in the Iyana school area of Ojo Local government said their area is placed in Band E and they don’t have light, except once in a while.

It's An Elephant Expectation
Joseph Okerentie, the CEO, of Icradesign, said that the move for 20 20-hour power supply is an elephant expectation.

He said: It will only take a miracle.
There are so many factors to consider. What is the total number of megawatts the country is generating?

"We also need to know how stable is the power being generated.
If you say you want to give 20 hours to the power supply, we need to know the stability of the generated power before you can guarantee 20 hour supply.

"DisCos cannot deliver 20hrs power supply on 4,099MW benchmarking South Africa's 45,000MW. This is more or less like an elephant project. It's like building a castle in the air.

"There has to be a lot of investment that can guarantee the workability.
I know they have been working on generating 10,000MW but the challenge has always been in the area of Supply from the Discos. For me, I don't see the possibility of the 20-hour duration.

"The area the Discos mentioned that they have a constant supply, how many of the places have this constant power supply, and what's the sustainability of it?
I believe shortly we can have it but for now, it's impossible," he said.

Is it 20 Hours without Load Shedding?
Also, a practising Electrical Engineer for the past 20 years, Mr Iwara Odinta said, "Is it to deliver power to all consumers at the same time without applying load shedding?

"Discos are saying this because 95% of those 20 hours will be off-peak when consumers are at sleep or cottage industries have closed for the day's activities," he added.

Constant Collapse of Nautical Grids

A Communication Specialist, Mr Samuel Arowosafe, added that it is a simple logic!

There's no way DisCos can deliver a 20-hour power supply with the current state in Nigeria.

"Even without the benchmarking, is it with the national grid that collapses every two market days? Or the infrastructure deficit in the power sector? Or the depth of corruption within the system?

" Do not let us be deceived, I do not think it's realistic.
This is only possible if things change; from proper administration to infrastructure development and proper distribution mechanics," said Arowosafe.

Insecurity and Vandalism Factor
A Military officer with the Nigerian Navy, Irem Enyi, asserted that "delivery on a 20 hours power supply is not realistic due to lack of security to adequately protect the electrical installation from vandals and been stolen as well as the constant collapse of the national grid."

It's Chasing Shadows

An angry consumer, Mr Cyriacus Nnaji lamented the dilapidated state of the power supply in the country.

He identified factors, such as corruption, and nepotism among others as a major hindrance to attaining Disco's expectation of power delivery even as high as the 20-hour distribution in Nigeria.

He said, "I am sure we are just mad as a country, expecting miracles and chasing shadows.

We have become a laughing stock in the comity of nations.
"It is corruption, nepotism, tribalism, absolute idiocy they are waiting to kill the country.

Where other nations make intentional efforts to develop, our leaders after national executive meetings, and national and state assembly meetings, waste taxpayers' money only arrive at decisions to demarket and destroy the nation.

Everything in the Country is in Reverse Gear.
"Talking seriously, the distribution companies are facing numerous challenges including but not restricted to difficulty in getting enough power for distribution, that is one, second, vandalism, insecurity, and instability in forex, all these play direct and indirect roles in determining the capacity and strength of the discos.

The next one is corruption, there is a lot of corruption in the system.
"Now before you talk of megawatts, all the above factors must be considered. Nigeria appears to be a captured nation where nothing is working properly, " he said.

Nnaji said, "It is there for you to see, South Africa with a population of slightly above 60 million having 45,000 megawatts of electricity, juxtapose this against Nigeria with a mere 4,000 with our grid collapsing almost every month, you can judge for yourself."

The Increase is Inimical To 50 Million Businesses

The Organised Private Sector (OPSN) comprising top Business Membership Organisations (BMOs) MAN, NACCIMA, NECA, NASSI and NASME representing more than 5 million businesses in Nigeria, said that the sudden exponential increase is not only unwarranted, it is inimical to the competitiveness of Nigerian products and businesses and will exacerbate the impact of the high cost of production.

"The astronomical increase is against the MYTO Order referenced NERC/2023/05, which valued the cost-reflective tariff at N114.8/Kwh (determined using an exchange rate of N919.39/$1). It also does not reflect the current exchange rate reality that has seen the Naira appreciate by 62.95 per cent over the dollar in the last month," said the OPSN.

The OPSN analysis that given the increase in electricity tariff to N225/kWh (determined using an exchange rate of N1463.31/$1) on the cost profile of a medium-sized company using 700kw one company will need to pay about N1.4 billion per annum (700 x 225 x 24 x 365)for electricity.

Whereas, in China, a similar medium-sized company will pay a little over N24m (700 x 94.14 x 24 x 365). The new electricity tariff is outrageously higher when compared with the going rates in countries with significant manufacturing performance.

In the United States of America (USA), United Kingdom, Germany, France, China, India, South Africa, Ghana and the Benin Republic, prevailing electricity costs per kilowatt hour are $0.1545, $ 0.3063, $0.53,$0.0573,$0.076, $0.068, $0.0999, $0.123 and $0.195, respectively.

" Clearly, with the new tariff of N225/kwh, Nigeria now ranks third after Germany and the United Kingdom on the list of countries with high electricity costs," said OPSN.

Consequently, the OPSN calls for the suspension of the implementation of the new tariff, warning that if that's not done, over 65 percent of private businesses, especially manufacturing concerns and SMIs, may be forced to close down due to the high electricity tariff.

11 DisCos in Nigeria and Their Coverage Areas l Source: Research Gate

The Chairman of the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Sanusi Garba, has estimated that the Federal Government will need to generate N3.2 trillion in 2024 in order to reverse the recent increase in electricity tariff.

He made these remarks during a stakeholders meeting organized by the House of Representatives Committee on Power in Abuja.

Garba emphasized that the current level of investment in the sector, while commendable, is insufficient to ensure a consistent power supply nationwide.

He also highlighted that without a comprehensive overhaul of the sector, including addressing foreign exchange fluctuations, Nigeria will continue to face challenges in power supply.

Garba pointed out that prior to the tariff review, distribution companies were only required to pay 10% of their energy invoice, leading to a liquidity challenge due to lack of cash backing.